Plan risk

The market does not rise in a straight line. Here your plan is lived a thousand times — with good years, crashes and fees — so you can see how solid it is and what is worth changing.

Currency Starting capital ($) Monthly contribution ($) Horizon, years Goal ($) in today's money What you invest in

Share of stocks

Fees and contribution growth

Fees and taxes per year (%) funds, broker, taxes on returns Contribution growth per year (%) above inflation, if income grows

Chance of reaching the goal

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Bad scenario

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Typical scenario

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Good scenario

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Typical scenario Between bad and good (10–90%) Goal

What raises the odds the most

The same plan with one change. The longer the bar, the more it moves the chance of reaching the goal.

What it takes for an 80% chance

80% is a sensible margin: the plan survives four outcomes out of five.

When the goal is reached

After how many years the capital first reaches the goal.

If a crash happens

What happens to the result if the market drops 35% once — in the first year or in the last.

How bad it can get

📊 How the model works: 1,000 monthly simulations. Returns above inflation: stocks 6% a year with 17% swings, bonds 1.5% with 6.5%. Rare severe crashes happen more often than in a simple model (a fat-tailed distribution). All amounts are in today's money. It is a model built on historical averages: the future may turn out worse or better.

How to read the result

Chance of reaching the goal is the share of simulations that ended with the needed amount. 80% and above means the plan has a margin. Around 50% is a coin flip: in half the cases the goal is missed.

Bad, typical and good scenario — the result that only 10% of cases were worse than, the exact middle, and the one only 10% were better than. Plan by the bad scenario, not the typical one.

What usually matters most

Contribution and horizon. These you control directly, and they usually do more than any cleverness in picking securities.
Fees. An extra 1% a year takes a noticeable part of the result over 20–30 years.
Timing of a crash. A fall early on barely hurts: contributions buy cheaply. A fall right before the goal hits the whole accumulated sum — which is why the stock share is reduced closer to the goal.

What the model does not know

What you will do in a crisis. The model assumes you keep investing and sell nothing.
Your income gaps, large expenses and life changes.
The future: returns are taken from the past and may not repeat.

Educational purposes only, not investment advice. Returns are not guaranteed.